Baylor at Brigham Young. It's the same to the opposing offence, but I wonder if DVOA views it differently. The Saints are just one game back of the Buccaneers and Falcons in the division. If the Vikings had a record commiserate with their DVOA, the Lions would be right in the divisional race. And then you have the Packers and Broncos, who were in the top 10 in preseason Super Bowl betting odds. Those are the three classic (modern) decent franchises with zero titles. You think they should be lower? Which is why they signed two DTs. There's getting blown out by a strong opponent one week after an emotional win and there's coming utterly unglued and forgetting how to play football when things are going sideways. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? This is a pretty solid matchup on one side of the ball, with Green Bays 10th-ranked offense clashing with Washingtons 11th-ranked defense. As a Colts fan, I'm confident that we should be able to field a good, competitive team by week 16. Who knows? In reply to The weather was fine. Doesnt really matter whether other commissioners are taken aback by Yormarks bravado or charmed by his honesty. Nobody ever calls that "relevant".they call it "cursed". In reply to You are giving me nothing by theslothook. In terms of DVOA, there's a pretty clear hierarchy from top to bottomthe Bengals are solidly in first at 16.6%, the Jets are just hanging on to an edge over the Patriots with both hovering around 11%, and the Chargers are way, way behind at -10.1%. I do agree there is a difference between "never won it" teams and "won at least one" teams. Music is going to be one of them. That's how you get this big "run defense with Davis vs not" split - they can't just play Davis more, he's still a rookie. In reply to How would you feel if the Giants LOST those two Super Bowls? Which would appear to be the worse game to observe from an offense standpoint: interception, 3-and-out punt, interception, 3-and-out punt, or fumble, fumble, fumble, fumble. A couple things that I believe DVOA doesn't capture are: I realize that most of these things may not be sustainable, and many are likely not predictive. If you go through the logs for Zappe, you see a ton of passing from under center and running from shotgun (in fact, it's almost the opposite pattern- passing primarily from under center, running from shotgun, and lots of play action). It would be fun if he did. The defensive decline comes against both the pass and the run, and the Bengals' three best defensive games by DVOA were all in that initial four-week period. I'll say this again, more clearly:this analysis is not about evaluating a team's offense. Caleb Kelly hopes OU's new nearly-black jerseys get your attention, Keeping quarterbacks around is the answer for college football's backup dilemma, Brett Yormark has big plans for Big 12 basketball tournament, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Were winning in all the areas that really matter, when you think about the long game. The Eagles have the best pass defense in the NFL on third-/fourth-and-long, with nine sacks, five interceptions, and a 42.9% completion rate allowed on 35 attempts But the Commanders demonstrated that opponents will rarely find themselves in third-and-long if they are willing to run on first and second downs. That's enough games for us to start looking at some trends, both around the league and with specific teams playing particularly good or bad. Cincy has the Chiefs, Browns, Buccaneers, Patriots, Bills, and Ravens; murderer's row compared to the Chargers' Raiders, Dolphins, Titans, Colts, Rams, and Broncos finish. The offense was only 15th and 19th in DVOA over the last two years. Brutal month for the Falcons with the 41st ranked offense, If ever you wondered why Lions fans defend Barry Sanders and Herman Moore so hard, this game is a case in point: The Cardinals, Browns, and Bears were at the bottom of our preseason projections, and there's no real surprise from seeing the Texans and Steelers already flipping through draft catalogs. On the other hand, a further look into the stats doesn't suggest that Smith is doing anything fluky. Probably second to his call of Favre's interception in 2009 NFC Championship game. I'll take Arizona and get knocked out tonight if they lose, going reverse Kliff Kingsbury as his teams are awful in the second half of the season both at Texas Tech and Arizona. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Which 2-4 (or worse) team is the best bet to turn things around and make the 2022 playoffs? Real Money purchase of 2 or 5 to get a Football Bet Bundle (5x1 or 5x2 bet tokens). But as much as I love delving into the depths of strength of victory and common games and massive, improbable upsets, we do have a fairly clear separation of wheat from chaff by this point in the season. I don't knowif the devil appeared offered me a Lions Super Bowl victory next yearbut in exchange they would have to re-hire Matt Millen as GM with a 20 year contract, I'd take it in a heartbeat. I don't think Josh Allen's elbow injury is serious enough to derail a Buffalo team which looked nigh-unstoppable at points in September and October, but we'll know a little more once they get through the Pats-Jets-Dolphins gauntlet they have coming up. Joseph, once a Pro Bowl-caliber run-plugger for the Vikings and Giants, was part of the Chargers' woeful 2021 run defense. Jackson Roberts: Michael Gallup, WR, DAL. Youre going to see our story told in different places, Yormark said. Again I'll posit this to NE fans. I've combed through Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information metrics, and here is what I've found. That's the version of Suh the Eagles want and need. Not sure if that would be readily available. Fans come out to individual football games to watch their teams compete and hopefully win that particular game. The biggest offensive improvement of the second month of the season belongs to the Cincinnati Bengals, but their defense and special teams have declined at the same time. If they are elite QBs, that window can go a decade and a half. Ian O'Connor: New Orleans Saints. I admit it's diffuse bc you are tuning both the window and the other variable at the same time. We want to get the Big 12 on the consciousness of everyone., Tramel:2023 Big 12 football schedule still a mystery, but league can't just push a button. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Do Giants trust Jones? But Yormark appears to lead with energy and conviction and personality. by ImNewAroundThe. Im really energized by it, Yormark said. (There didn't seem to be much this year). Russell by Bryan Knowles. Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. In reply to Id rather my team be by theslothook. *When I became a Lions fan, the Jets (ok, The Titans of New York) weren't even a gleam in anyone's eyeand when they did come into existence, there was no chance there would ever be a Lions-Jets game. ", This coming from an Eagles fan who gets to have both, In reply to "Ive never agreed with this by riri. If they beat New England, I think that will be enough to ensure Cincinnati's survival, barring some terrible results the rest of the way. The game-ending pick vs. Minnesota happened on 2nd and 10 in comfortable FG range with Singletary uncovered for at least a 6-8 yard gain just to Allen's right. The all-time passing lists remain a reliable indicator of longevity and a horrendous indicator of excellence. As others have said, if you went to Mr Needful and he sold you a sb ring but what came with it was 10+ years of misery. With Jonathan Taylor healthy, the Colts offense can do one thing very well, and even a novice game-planner should figure out what to do. The worst games in combined net yards per play: So you may be asking, was this the worst combined offensive performance ever according to DVOA? Oh Will. Second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger was touted for his rushing ability out of college, rushing for 1903 yards in four years at the University of Texas. No cashout, stake not returned. thus it has to be the "organization" without ever venturing a cause and effect about how. The teams who win are almost always good for a long period of time and interestingly win during the off years so to speak. But a 20-year stretch is a good example, especially because once you go back morethan 20 years, the NFL's almost entirely different. Cordarrelle Patterson, though currently injured, is second in rushing DYAR (total value) in the NFL behind only Nick Chubb. Both Philadelphia and Buffalo dropped in DVOA -- the Eagles after a moderate win against a bad Texans team, and the Bills after a close loss to a good Jets team -- but the Bills dropped more than the Eagles so they relinquish the top spot which they had held since Week 1. That's theaverage. The year the Saints won the SB, we only got the home field advantage after Washington missed a short Field Goal at the end of regulation. But I'm counting on two things here: Gallup's existing rapport with Dak Prescott and the Lions' complete inability to slow down a passing offense (specifically, they rank dead last in DVOA against WR2s). DAVE is currently 36% preseason forecast and 64% actual performance for teams with nine games, and 45% preseason forecast and 55% actual performance for teams with eight games. Taylor also did not play in Week 5's contest against the Denver Broncos, Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. They have seen personnel come and go. Football decimal odds are easy to understand, because they represent the payout you'll get if you win e.g. Counting those scrambles as passes gives the Bills a 42% run rate. They allowed 7-70 to Zach Ertz last week, 8-179-2 to T.J. Hockenson in Week 4, and 5-87 to Kyle Pitts (his only game with more than 25 receiving yards). Max 1 purchase per customer/week. Hackett just has to stop being himself. Shakir is too young, McKenzie too inconsistent, and I have no idea what the deal is with Knox. I think they get through. The Eagles have compensated for their run defense by outscoring everyone early in games (always the best way to protect a bad run defense) and playing outstanding, turnover-happy pass defense. Football Odds. (it feels like it does since all the bad games have lots of turnovers). In reply to Since I can't craft a proper by TomC. But Im very bullish on where were going. Ive never agreed with this sentiment. With three touchdowns, either or both of them (we'll discuss Dalton's Saints in a later segment) will pass Len Dawson. In reply to I don't think he's in the by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. It's been quietly very good in recent seasons. In reply to Not to be pedantic with your by Mike B. That's a lot to ask for in one week, but they'll probably lock things up in Week 14, alongside everyone else on this list. The Patriots two TDs came on a pick-six and a 3 yard drive after a blocked punt. Special teams helped the Ravens out in that game, but the Broncos have the 28th ranked special teams unit- not likely. I think we have reached the point of the season where winning teams start to get used to playing winning football and losing teams find ways to soil the bed, as the Jags did against the Colts a week ago. Let me try to bridge all of this with a source of agreement. Guys like Aikman, Kelly, Moon, and Namath are also below the cut but in. If Smith is playing so well, why does Seattle have a losing record? And, of course, if one team does manage to sweep the other, go ahead and pencil them ina minimum of nine wins with a crushing tiebreaker over a top rival should be more than good enough for either team. In fact, I actually do believe it. That's based on their high DVOAs; the Bills have the best season-long DVOA, while the 49ers are seventh overall and first since Week 8. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? But also part of it is the rarity that comes with being a SB champion. The Jets now have the No. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor Ruled Out Sunday vs. Patriots, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Cousins is entering the leaderboard territory of real and near-Hall of Famers. Id rather my team be consistently relevant and in the mix than have a one and done title. and just in case New York eyes and ears didnt make it to ESPN, Yormark took the Big 12 to New York. And when Jordan Davis comes back, the Eagles run defense could turn from a weakness into a relative strength. Seems like if you wanted to eat someone, there would be no point in stomping on their throat first. A Super Bowl win could do the same for Cousins. It had been a rough night prior. 9.8 means you'll receive 98 for every 10 you bet, including your stake, if the bet wins. While Ehlinger finished with a negative rushing DVOA in his first NFL start, the Colts did design run plays specifically for Ehlinger. It's actually kinda amazing that only 1 was worked out (MIA) so far. Somehow Seattle came out of that trade with all the draft picks AND the better starting QB. This is why good organizations can have windows across multiple QBs. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Football decimal odds are easy to understand, because they represent the payout you'll get if you win e.g. A secondary reason why Sunday's game wasn't among the worst ever is opponent adjustments, as both the Patriots and the Colts now qualify as top-10 defenses. Those networks declined an opportunity for such talks 18 months ago, prompting OU and Texas to reach out to the SEC. It was all about the school, which is great, Yormark said. 5 times in 20 years is 25% of the time. We already list the Eagles with a 100% chance to make the playoffs after rounding, even though that's technically not accurate; they can clinch the postseason this week with a win and losses by the Commanders, Seahawks, and 49ers. This week's bonus question asks about which team at 2-4 or worse is most likely to make the playoffs. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Joe Burrow is 41-of-54 for 410 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, six sacks, a 75.9% completion rate and 7.6 yards per attempt. Smith is ranked fourth in QBR, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. The Bengals aren't consistent enough for that to be a gimme by any stretch of the imagination, but all losing their hard games really does is take away their margin for error. I mean, Roethlisbergersure as hell wasn't the reason they won that first Super Bowl! Justin Fields scrambles everyone's minds. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. There's a good chance that whichever of these four teams does well enough to be on top of this mini-division will also be doing well enough to make a run at their division title. Living people tend to object to it. I really hope we don't have proper data to do DVOA (beyond estimated) for that Super Bowl. Find stories, updates and expert opinion. My money's on the former this year. Turns out we suck with him and our bright spot is MVS 2.0. It depends on how you measure it. Vikings now have the highest DVOA rank in the NFC North, at 18. We're not talking about comparing teams, we're talking about comparing offenses ingames- notanoffense compared to another offense,alloffense (by both teams) in a game compared toalloffense (by both teams) in another game. I mean, it's got to be the Jags, right? And again. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? And Yormark is blessed by timing Big 12 football has stepped into an incredible run of parity. Plays per drive doesn't tell you much. It's likely that Allen's two late-game sacks also came on what were expected to be 10-plus-air yard passes. I also believe bad organizations exist too. Carlson:Why conference realignment may force Big 12 schools to make changes to Olympic sports, I was very comfortable with that narrative, that were going to be aggressive and thoughtful, Yormark said. We've seen parity in individual games as well. But Denver is working in fits and startsthey still have the No. DVOA does support your comment that the AFC is better, however, the NFC is 1 game over .500 and other than Buffalo, KC, LAC and BAL, it seems that there are 3 wild card positions and an AFC South division title up for grabs. The two teams combined for just 2.66 net yards per play, which is the fifth-lowest combined average in any game since 1981 and the lowest combined average of this century. Really the away game at Dallas is the only game the Eagles look like they could lose all year. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Patrick Mahomes is the only other quarterback with two interceptions when leading by 14 points. In reply to That's because all of the by Pat. And when it fails, all you can conclude is, "well, the organization must have eroded now". Kansas City is fifth over that time period. Math error on the Seahawks weeks 5-9 total DVOA. Some teams are choosing to go all-in, accepting that they're going to take a step back, a hard crash, or have to rely on rookies. Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? The +260 moneyline doesn't quite do it for meI'll take that touchdown insteadbut if we reach the +300 range I may nibble. If your consistently getting into the top 4 for 10 years I feel like you have pretty decent chance of breaking through at least once. Join Betfair Now As a technical footnote, simply stating to run a regression and test the ar term should also consider the assumptions of stationarity, especially in finite samples. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 against FBS opponents, 5-0 Not that itis. Reader Makes Bengals a Postseason Threat; Derrik Klassen. Why would Xmas eve Iggles v Cowgirls be a deciding game when the Eagles are currently 2.5 games up on Dallas, not 1? But the 49ers have the third-highest variance in football, thanks in large part to getting rocked by the Chiefs. (The others: 2011 Patriots, 2013 Packers, 2013 Chargers, 2017 Patriots and 2021 Chiefs.). Which teams can still desperately pile on wins, and which are just scheduling fodder the NFL really, really wishes they could flex out of prime viewing on Christmas Day. Candi roots for the wrong Football team. Bet online with Paddy Power and browse the latest sports betting odds Online Bets Latest Betting Odds Sports Betting UK Bet Builder 18+ Gamble Responsibly Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. Easy to say when you have TWO Super Bowl wins this century. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. For the Dolphins, it's all about the damage done during Tua Tagovailoa's concussion; losses to the Bengals and Jets are really bad when you're in a potential wild-card race against the Bengals and Jets. 10: Penalty Box (4.83) Win or Lose. In reply to I think Green Bay bounces by mehllageman56, Such a thing in their schedule. Some breakdowns: It goes without saying that a defense which allows nearly 5 yards per carry on every down, rarely gets a stuff, and cannot stop red zone and short-yardage runs has a problem. The good news is that underlying stat trends suggest even more success for the 49ers defense in the future. I split the season between Week 4 and Week 5 because that gave me two equal four-game sets for teams that have had their bye weeks. We'll do this every week if it gets a good response: picks against the spread, straight-up upsets, and player prop bets the FO staff likes in Week 7, plus a bonus question each week. In reply to Its really hard to overstate by Hoodie_Sleeves. Are they really "worse" than 5 separate teams that have losing records now that are ranked higher in DVOA? There are no guarantees. Usually, you've got to be really good and a little lucky (or pretty good and REALLY lucky). Donovan McNabb and Boomer Esiason are also comfortably within Cousins' sights this season. The Vikings are enjoying an odd-though-not-totally-unexpected ride at the top of the standings. Yes, really. Literally every team in the top 10 winning percentage since 2000 has won the Super Bowl over that stretch. Sir - As a 51 year old Raiders fan, I can tell you that I'd trade say a .300 record for all the years I've got left for a single ring I get to witness. They are a year away from becoming the Saints. Allen's interceptions have come when opponents have pulled within 14 points. Much of Burrow's production came in the Bengals' wins over the Falcons and Panthers, where they raced out to huge halftime leads. That's true. Taylor also did not play in Week 5's contest against the Denver Broncos, Hurry back from the bye, Bills and Eagles. And in the post-Brady era, Belichick and Co. haven't played with their food when they have clearly been the better team entering a matchup. ', "Ive never agreed with this sentiment. I'll take JAX similar to Aaron, with two blowout wins and a bad division. There's getting blown out by a strong opponent one week after an emotional win and there's coming utterly unglued and forgetting how to play football when things are going sideways. This may not be a fully-healthy 49ers team, but it should be closer than it has been in a while. But they also each have at least a 3.2% chance of winning their division, because the South is no good. I dont mind telegraphing what Im about to do, Yormark said. Some of this was expected, naturally. People are starting to think, Whats going on over there?, Tramel's ScissorTales: Lance Leipold performing miracles with Kansas football. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. For example, Baltimore's Devin Duvernay currently leads all qualifying receivers in receiving DVOA. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Being consistently relevantwill get youa title. Founder and Editor-in-chief of Footballoutsiders.com. By using the harmonic mean, this analysis in effect says that DVOA is the wrong way to evaluate a teams offense. It's a night game, it's in Foxborough, and the Pats have a chance to get over .500, so the crowd should be into it. There's only a 98.9% chance they win the division, despite literally having a clinching scenario this week! Aaron Schatz: Jacksonville Jaguars. Or remember the more recent 14 point L last year with him , In reply to "Remember when he nearly led Washington to a win over Tampa Bay" by ImNewAroundThe. It literally has nothing to do with what the quarterback is or does. Our breaking political news keeps you covered on the latest in US politics, including Congress, state governors, and the White House. 6-10-1 might be good enough to make the playoffs in the AFC South. Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. What we need, then, is an upset somewhere or other. Vincent Verhei: Jacksonville Jaguars. If it doesn't work well, your theory still holds. Not that there's nothing to wrap up here, mind you. Even with the easy schedule, however, I think the Chargers are going to fall off the pace quickly. Because organizations have inertia. The lists do not show all contributions to every state ballot measure, or each independent expenditure committee formed to support or A couple of teams where I'm not even going to bother posting the numbers, but you know they've been worse over the last month: The Colts and Patriots put on a terrible display of offensive football on Sunday, bad enough that it got Frank Reich fired. In his likely World Cup finale, Ronaldo's calm, subdued effort not enough for Portugal, Man City's Castellanos is settling nicely in WSL, just in time for Man United's visit, Brittney Griner's release met with shock, relief from the Phoenix Mercury, 796 goals and counting: The Alex Ovechkin chase to 800 tracker, MLB winter meetings winners, losers and takeaways: Our favorite (and least favorite) moves of the week, NCAA volleyball 2022 regionals: Expert breakdown and predictions, Transfer Talk: Man City tracking France World Cup star Theo Hernandez. From 01.10.2023. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Your claim is "but.. but.. the data's too weak, you can't prove it.". The Colts offense has been terrible this year, dead last in DVOA. Only Philadelphia (5-0) is still unbeaten, and no team is still winless. So let's come at this from another angle. The Bengals, meanwhile, have that all-important head-to-head win over New York in their back pocket, plus a game against the Patriots on Christmas Eve to look forward to. Davis is turning into a bit of a "magic pill" for Philly fans. The Vikings did the latter against the Cowboys, and it signaled that they aren't the buttoned-down, ball-control-and-execution team they claim to be. Mike Tanier: Houston Texans (+7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders. I still have nightmares. Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. Still, the Eagles are not trying to fix their entire defense. In reply to Painful SB losses! It's a funky average that only comes out high when both (or all) of the numbers involved are high. Oh, the waste. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. But any future NFL owner/general manager/showrunner who considered dabbling in Win Now tactics in Februaryincluding teams such as the Broncos and Raiders who have already dabbledhas probably come down from the sugar rush by now. 2 wide receivers. A few days later, Yormark led a Big 12 delegation, including basketball coaches Scott Drew of Baylor and Bob Huggins of West Virginia, on a Gotham City blitz of both traditional and non-traditional media. I won't claim it's not possible. That would be a rousing victory for the conference. They've consistently been an afterthought to the Packers, and only barely above the Bears in terms of relevance. So I'll define it as top 10 winning percentage over a window of 20 years. Here's another team that has improved significantly on defense over the past few weeks, the Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks would look even better if we had split the season at Week 6 instead of Week 5, because that's when their defense really turned things around. Bullets 2 and 3 are related to bullet 4. Of course, humillity is absolutely critical and I like to think I have been. Winning Week 18 is essentially necessary, if not sufficient, for Atlanta to make the postseason. It may have sounded like I completely dismiss the organizational argument. Since I can't craft a proper argument against the Bears getting smoked, I will cherry-pick bits from the article to criticize. While the "consistent relevent" strategy works to win rings, I think there is a sort of minimum threshold. DVOA Analysis. The Colts are now far, far behind the rest of the league in offensive DVOA. And for me, more curiously, they keep winning in a very similar way up until recently because of Lamar. The comforting thing about being a Vikings fan is that every year, I know they'll disappoint me; the surprising thing is finding out how! Most of those decisions are football-based. The low yards per play show sustained incompetence. We have 42 years of DVOA data, going all the way back to 1981, and this year's standard deviation of DVOA for the 32 teams is the lowest ever after Week 5. & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. In nearly every case, Seattle has to not only catch but pass the 49ers to win the NFC West, and that's a tall order unless San Francisco absolutely crumbles. There is evidence that will happen. The McCown to Nate Poole TD, right? (By the by, Will, Nate Poole's pushout TD on 4th and 25 was in 2003:https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200312280crd.htm#all_pbp ; In 2004 they made the playoffs leading to Randy Moss's "disgusting act" in the wild card win over Green Bay), "Fields could grow into an Allen-/Wilson-level scrambler, designed rusher, AND passer in 2023 or beyond. The choice of opponent was understandable (weaker team from other conference, so a loss doesn't hurt as much in tie-breakers) but playing the week after playing in London seems a bad idea in general. by Aaron Schatz. They should save the Allen superheroics for when they face the Chiefs. Instead the harmonic mean averages inverse DVOA. Oh wait, you were making fun of them. If these four teams went 6-0, they probably are in; it's just that they have not been good enough this year to make 6-0 seem like a realistic possibility. No disrespect to anyone whos been here, theyve done a great job, but I think theres so many places we can go.. And if they end up splitting, well, it's advantage Washingtonthey have a win against the Eagles already in the bag, meaning New York would have to get an upset of their own if they wanted to have even a chance in a tie scenario. The NFL's reigning rushing leader is off to the worst start of his three-year career, with his -57.5% DVOA and -54 DYAR both ranking lastamong 38 qualified running backs. And there's very little hope for Atlanta if they don't beat Tampa Bay in Week 18; the Buccaneers already won the Week 5 game, they have half-game lead on Atlanta, and they have the easier schedule going forward at -4.5% to Atlanta's -0.2%. 1 wide receivers, including a game where they held Justin Jefferson to just 48 yards. And I get it; I watched Monday's game as well. I'd be curious to see how teams with QBs like vintage Rodgers, Brady, Manning etc behaved when up by 14 points. The television networks. SOMEBODY has to win the AFC south, so the Jags feel like the might have the best chance. A bunch of Belichick teams have been good at it. You mean except for the fact that he detonated as soon as he was without Reid and has had super-toxic media controversy since retiring? Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. In reply to I am not the smartest man in by theslothook. The defense has been an even bigger disappointment, ranking 26th so far. In reply to Wasn't it just a year or two by MJK. This is the third game in five weeks that Taylor has missed with an ankle injury. 7 and the surprising New York Jets make the top 10 for the first time this year at No. In reply to I was never so happy as when by Aaron Brooks G. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Football fans around the world love to bet on football and see their team prevail, making the taste of the winning bet even sweeter when the full-time whistle blows. That's aesthetically pleasing to me; the three-act structure is a fun way to view the season from 20,000 feet, as it were. And only 3 active/recently retired QBs will qualify per PFRs HoF monitor (Brady, Rodgers, Brees). We can disagree. The Jaguars are eighth in overall DVOA on the season, but only 27th since crushing the Chargers on the road in Week 3. 11: Candlelit Vigilante (4.60) Much needed tenderness. I don't want to continue this back and forth which is bordering on antagonistic. Latest breaking news, including politics, crime and celebrity. But the difference is that you'recriticizing other people who do. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? The Chargers offense is already in a good spot against the Seahawks' 22nd-ranked defense, and Keenan Allen is on pace to return. So they're having trouble covering wide receivers of all varieties. Look for the Saints to make a run if they get some combination of Jameis Winston, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave back. I mean, IknowNFCCGs are small sample size, obviously. 2023 Big 12 football schedule still a mystery, but league can't just push a button. Lines are taken from the consensus at Vegas Insider. And the defensive line is dealing with a number of injuries: most importantly, a groin injury that could cost Nick Bosa time, but also a foot injury for Arik Armstead and a knee injury for Javon Kinlaw. In Va. I feel pretty good about it.. The only asterisk on all these performances is that it is still early in the season. Offensive DVOA is going to be even worse when a quarterback goes on an interception spree or a team fumbles five times. In terms of "travesty" I think the net yards per play version is correct because we are talking about perception. Faith is belief in the absence of evidence. The Bills get the chance to show the AFC East who's boss, and they should be fine. And then you threw a birthday party where only half of your teammates showed up, which OK, if we can pause for a second, is that number good or bad? Pointing at bad health as a reason for bad play is only a sign of optimism if those injured players are going to come back healthy. If your consistently say, a 1-4 seed, I think it's working. Can we please get Josh McDaniels back? The Colts are 28th in offensive success rate, 31st in EPA per play and 31st in yards per play (once you take out kneels and spikes). There's one more interesting offense to talk about from the early part of the season, and that's the Falcons. Candi roots for the wrong Football team. Real Money purchase of 2 or 5 to get a Football Bet Bundle (5x1 or 5x2 bet tokens). No cashout, stake not returned. OUs domination of the conference is gone. The craziest part of that game against the Colts was they had 100+ yards on the ground and averaged a decent clip per carry. Football is such an injury driven game, that I feel the all-in is pretty difficult and it's pretty rare to get movement at the difference maker level. ). If they can get an early lead and play from ahead, I like their chances. Carolina finished the game with -104.7% offensive DVOA. You can't by theslothook, "You can't be an eternal pessimist forever. Might get a 14+ win team at least. A restructured conference office that includes major marketing initiatives. Now thats bold, by Big 12 standards. For offensive travesties, youd probably do better just to look at the DVOA of the better of the two offenses in each game. From 01.10.2023. On defense, the run defense was better over the last five weeks but the pass defense got worse. This team is in the running, but if they keep rushing the passer the way they have the last couple weeks, the 2000 squad will once again be easily unchallenged in its loathsomeness, after playing at Buffalo this week, the vikings have 6 home games in a row (5 in twin cities, and 'at Detroit' ). In Va. For a high upside play among non-stars, Gallup feels frisky this week. The Bengals lead the NFL with 59 rushes and 271 yards in such circumstances, again largely because they spent entire halves goofing around against the Falcons and Panthers. Execution was the issue there - he failed to throw the one into the ground and Davis ran the wrong route on the other. Unfortunately, that's at least a couple of years off at this point. NFL Week 11 - In this whiparound NFL Week 11 end-of-week edition of Walkthrough: You don't need Walkthrough to point out that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have gotten a little over-aggressive when leading in the fourth quarter. Everyone makes mistakes. Every year, 97% of teams fail to win the title. Find all the latest real-time sports coverage, live reports, analysis and comment on Telegraph Sport. Yet, nobody is running away with the NFC South. It would help if you could define consistently relevant. But some of those big wins weren't quite so big on the scoreboard. You don't like it. 188 wins would have a standard deviation of +/-14 or so, and the top 3 teams have 259, 229, 227. But any future NFL owner/general manager/showrunner who considered dabbling in Win Now tactics in Februaryincluding teams such as the Broncos and Raiders who have already dabbledhas probably come down from the sugar rush by now. There's a second tier, just above the teams we have declared dead and buried, of teams that would need to suddenly and dramatically improve in order to make the playoffs, but haven't dug themselves in a hole so deep as to make a sudden turnaround meaningless. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Its not why I come here to FO and I also regret my comment above. They're currently eighth in DVOA. NFL Week 13 - With Thanksgiving come and gone, we enter the final act of the 2022 NFL season12 weeks gone, six weeks to go. Remember when he nearly led Washington to a win over Tampa Bay in the playoffs two years ago? 61 of your 125 passing yards came on the final drive of the game, with the Panthers playing prevent the whole way. If we were handing out seeds based on estimated wins rather than actual wins, the Jags would be within striking distance, with 5.2 to Tennessee's 6.7. Take your pick as to which of the three teams are the most disappointed to find themselves grouped with the Bears and Texans of the world; I'd take the Broncos because they also have to watch their first-round pick head to Seattle and they don't even have a shiny Lombardi Trophy to distract themselves. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Picking an AFC team in this exercise feels like an automatic failure considering the strength of the conference, but I really have no faith in the NFC options on this list. New 5 or 10 Football Bet Bundles. And they aren't getting to the quarterback at all, ranking last in the league in sacks as well as adjusted sack rate. They also find themselves in divisional tiebreaker trouble, as they have yet to actually win a game in the AFC East; those losses to the Jets and Dolphins could come back to bite them. Derrick Henry is coming. If they can beat a Texans team in organizational turmoil this week, the Raiders will be up to 2-4. I'll even put BAL in the clump of pretenders if they lose this week to CLE. Bryan Knowles: San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs. I am, in general, very slow to proclaim certain players great or even terrible. The Colts have been a bit lucky to recover nine of those 13 fumbles, as well as three fumbles on special teams. Indianapolis DAVE rating is now based on a projection with Sam Ehrlinger at quarterback. The signings of Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph would be a much bigger deal if it were still 2016. Rekindled interest by ESPN and Fox to open television contract negotiations. The Rams are not a year away from rebuilding. Rams-Saints is probably the first matchup in NFL history between a 3-6 team and a 3-7 team with a combined negative-$72 million in effective cap space and zero first-round draft picks in the following year. The Football odds shown in the blue boxes are set by the layers, and the odds shown in the pink boxes are set by the backers. You only read one of them. And hey, who knows? Like on the minds of American young people. Click here for the full table. How do you look back on the 07 season? But the Rams? For every interloper title winner like the Giants, there's a team like the Chargers or the 2000s Eagles who made the playoffs a bunch and have nothing to show for it. Something similar seems to be the case for Allen recentlyit feels like the conventional wisdom for any offense with The Very Model Of A Modern Moble Passer is now to keep doing what they'd been doing whether they have a lead or not, thus defenses continue to defend that. Depth charts for every team In reply to If the Vikings had a record by Aaron Brooks G. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Four of those teams are in playoff contention in the AFC, so slipping up against any of them not only hurts Miami, but helps a rival; double whammy. Kyler Murray can not possibly continue playing this poorly, the NYG hold a playoff position that will be tough to hold, the NFC South is unlikely to get a wild card and my favorite SF is only 3-3 and one injury away to the fragile Jimmy G of losing their spot in the division, the Rams line can not block and Seattle's Geno Mania will run its course quicker than Linsanity did in basketball. In reply to If you want a cutoff for by KnotMe. In reply to Last three weeks by Aaron Schatz. And if someone disagrees with me and offers cogent reasons why; well it sucks to be wrong but I'd rather be better informed. Or Packers fans for the 2011 season? I don't. The issue is combining the two teams. Both of them came in the 4th Quarter of a game with a 3 score lead. I strongly agree with you about being consistently good vs. winning a championship. Until this year, the Vikings team I hated the most, since the first year I paid attention to them, as a wee lad in 1969. Good times,and something to hope for!". It's harder to eat someone who is still struggling. Late in the game, against most opponents, less is more. In reply to "Fields could grow into an by Led, Responding to Pat here because the thread was becoming hard to read. Let's look through some interesting numbers here, from the best units (San Francisco's defense) to the worst (Indianapolis' offense). Aspirationally, thats what I want. If I were a betting person, I would stay the hell away from Broncos-Jets. In reply to Its a real distinction by nat. Themedianis 93.5, and Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Ryan are all well above that. And why there is a whole discipline of microeconomics and why micro foundations are a thing in econ. I've combed through Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information metrics, and here is what I've found. Do you prefer standard stats? He has caught 17 out of 20 targets for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Never mind that no one has ever made the playoffs at 3-9 or worse! You can start with explaining which people in the organization specifically. Tennessee was at a little under 3 plays per point. Yormark is a dead ringer for actor David Hyde Pierce, the wondrous Dr. Niles Crane of Frasier fame, only without the neurosis. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints: is clearly ranked because . There are five Allen scrambles (not designed runs) for 59 yards in the data. Even if you think (very incorrectly) that voters wave all quarterbacks with rings into Canton, do you think voters would wave two of them in simultaneously? DAYTIME TALK-SHOW SOCK-PUPPET: If Kirk Cousins wins the Super Bowl, he's a no-question first-ballot Hall of Famer, and anyone who disagrees is a hater. Join Betfair Now Is this their best DVOA and/or weighted DVOA through 8 games? DVOA absolutely does not measure health, which is a very real thing and matters. Most of Jackson's most productive runs are designed. Alright, all 14 playoff teams decided. Roethlisberger would be nearly unprecedented if he didn't. But he was on the waiver wire in November because he had the opportunity to wait and choose a contender to contribute to. This is already a long post, but I think the source of our particular disagreement comes down to threshhold of classification. Cleveland DAVE rating is adjusted to reflect Deshaun Watson returning from his suspension in Week 13. He is a likable guy. Based on harmonic mean, the worst combined offensive performance in one game came in a 23-6 Chicago win over Carolina in Week 5 of 2010. And probably also with the Steelers. Green Bay has 12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter. Either that or alot of red zone fails I guess. Green Bay had -32.8% DVOA with just 4.0 yards per play and two turnovers against the below-average Tampa defense, but for the most part this was just a horrific game from the Buccaneers and the Packers were sort of along for the ride. Roundtable: Who has been the top waiver wire pickup so far this season? Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. A Vikings-Bills Super Bowl would be great; both teams with 4 losses and no wins, and an all-time classic already played during the season? Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? In reply to I think the yards per play by Ben. Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. Mike Tanier: Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans. Think of the distinction this way: if any of the first 10 teams were to go 6-0 down the stretch, they would probably still miss the playoffs. They have won in spite of the QB, so the easiest explanation of all for long term success isn't there. Imagine if the Bengals had held onto their fourth-quarter Super Bowl lead or came back on their final drive. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? After this week's game at Buffalo, they only have road games against each of their weaker division rivals. The exception will be snap counts, which will still be available to everyone Monday but now will be updated earlier. They can't handle good defenses, and they were making opposing backup qbs look like DYAR efficiency monsters. That itcanbe. Take Allen's scrambles out of the Bills rushing data and they still average 4.5 yards per carry. We saved Justin Fields for last because Because in some of these communities, thats the only game in town. The coaches and players change, but the buildings, staff, structure, owner all stay the same over time. And in the NFC, I'm willing to pencil in the Vikings as NFC North champions. So it's more like saying "I don't mind if my team hasn't won a Super Bowl yet if they're consistently the best team in their division." Saying "that has no relation to the NFL" makes no sense. In reply to I provided multiple by Aaron Brooks G. For this week, if the Commanders win, we give them an 83% chance to make the playoffs and the Giants just a 29% chance. Remember, these are full-season stats for everyone but Fields: If you are curious, Lamar Jackson scrambled for 390 yards in 2021 and 384 yards in 2019, 12th and 13th on the list. Seahawks starting running Rashaad Penny left Sunday's contest with a season-ending leg injury.With Penny gone, the rookie Walker III will inherit the lead responsibility in the highest-rated offense according to Football Outsiders' Offense DVOA and the 12th-highest The defense has been reasonable. Here are Allen's passing statistics when the Bills are leading by 14 or more points: 25-of-44, 427 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions, two sacks, a 56.8% completion rate and 9.7 yards per attempt. Alex Smith had a game where he had a negative ANY/A with 42 net passing yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs. I'd be surprised if they miss the playoffs. Also 10 year windows are next to impossible to maintain unless your QB is an obvious hall of famer. Like the national consciousness. Sometimes its compressed to just half a decade or so. Not sure how much longer this Green Bay skid can last, but Im betting Washington can squeeze one more loss out before it ends. But there really isnt any good reason to use harmonic mean for this kind of analysis. While no team is mathematically eliminated, there are some teams who have performed so badly to this point that you could replace them with the 1985 Chicago Bears and they'd likely still end up missing the playoffsholes too big to claw their way out of in the little time remaining. And then while you are it, explain what they are doing specifically so this all doesn't just feel like post hoc correlation narration. In reply to As a 34 year old Titans fan by Shylo, I can say it's worth it. NFL Week 9 - The Indianapolis Colts have officially ruled out running back Jonathan Taylor in the team's Week 9 game against the New England Patriots, according to a report from the Colts' Twitter account. Cousins is down with Jim Everett and Kerry Collins, where he belongs. (Michael Thomas doesn't exist.). Is it just the owner or the GM or do you need some combination plus the scouts and the ball boys? The Vikings have been relevant for 50 years and have zero rings to show for it. Of course, 2019 changed all of that. problem. Cook had 18 for 94. Id rather my team be consistently relevant and in the mix than have a one and done title. Five million in the red may not sound that bad, at least compared to the Saints at $67.5 million. There's no play action for Jones, no misdirection, just lots of shotgun and 5 men blocking. Search for "competitive balance sports NFL" or the equivalent in Google Scholar and it should turn up a fair amount. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Yormark is direct and confident. The Vikings did the latter against the Cowboys, and it signaled that they aren't the buttoned-down, ball-control-and-execution team they claim to be. These teams' fates are well out of their hands, and they need massive chaos throughout the league to make it; the kind of stories we'd be writing about for years and years to justify fans of other terrible teams as the calendar flips to December. The Bucs averaged 2.9 yards per play with eight turnovers. We have seen 8-3 teams miss the playoffs before, although that usually requires a quarterback injury (see Lamar Jackson for the 2021 Ravens or Nick Foles for the 2014 Eagles). Nascent Packers fans (myself among them) spent a LOT of time complaining about the turtle-mode playcalling of Mike McCarthy back in the day. That doesn't leave us with a lot of data with which to analyze Fields. The thought of a Kirk Cousins Pro Football Hall of Fame debate keeps Walkthrough awake at night. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. It's just that it would take a historic collapse for someone like Philadelphia to miss the playoffs, and just a regular collapse for someone like Miami to stay home. The mention of "plays per point" was just because DVOA's on a play scale - it's just a normalization factor. It really is just a rate average over the same distance (one game) if you think about it in terms of total expected points by the offense. Cale Clinton: New England Patriots (-8) over Chicago Bears. No pocket protector, though. If they are elite QBs, that window can go a decade and a half. Yeah, you're right; the force out td miss playoffs on the last play was 2003. Unless you believe that the genie will only grant you three wishes, in which case, sure, only use those wishes on high-leverage situations, but again, DVOA doesn't measure the magic genie. I agree, you can't really do the sort of plastic surgery sb win strategy. Well, one problem is that the defense has been terrible this year. Is this ever going to be useful? Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . There's too much working against them, and while you can never count Justin Herbert out entirely, I think there are just too many roadblocks in their way. This is the third game in five weeks that Taylor has missed with an ankle injury. Sam Ehlinger shows promise but he only took the reins last week. Smith isn't the only veteran backup who has succeeded as a starter early in the 2022 season. Then they'll take it away. The #Vikings win 16,281 of them Here are the top five. He still has special moments and can upgrade the players around him. Peyton shows up a few more times on the first page, as does Rodgers in his 2011 season but also 2014. Broncos Country, let's chop. DVOA actually does account for the first two points, in the sense that 7 yards on 3rd and 6 is worth a lot more than 5 yards on 3rd and 6. And in the post-Brady era, Belichick and Co. haven't played with their food when they have clearly been the better team entering a matchup. Doubt they'll get homefield over Philly, but maybe they'll get revenge for 2017-2018 blowout. Sure, there are excuses for all of those losses (a monsoon, massive injuries, and Russell Wilson's 49ers voodoo doll), but they still happened, and so the 49ers find themselves with work to do. Denver, at 14th, is the only other team in the upper half of the league in DVOA that's 2-4 or worse, and I like the Jaguars' odds of catching Tennessee and Indianapolis more than I like Denver surpassing Kansas City or finding a spot in the AFC's crowded wild-card field. The entire AFC East has winning records right now and the entire division also ranks in the top half of the DVOA ratings, with the Patriots last among the four teams at No. To get the right answer, you convert the speeds into hours per mile to get distance in the denominator, average those, and then invert back to miles per hour. For the most part, teams similar to the Seahawks -- hot starts from veteran backups -- have faded away over the rest of the year. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. It's not necessarily anything. (He also mentioned 86 was the reverseeveryone knew there was no chance going in), In reply to I've heard NE fans say they by KnotMe. I was fully prepared to shed and suck once Rodgers retired. You can also think about it as "how quickly are these godawful offenses throwing away points?" Just barely. Like I said, the Bengals should be favored. Even Barkley's 146 was on over 30 carries. Falcons fans here. The crazy thing is if opposing team injuries and luck keep playing along, they might be not only the worst 2nd seed ever, but probably the only 2nd seed ever to have worse DVOA than every other playoff team (Giants at 19 could maybe upset that one). Again, you previously criticized someone for "thinking they're the smartest person in the room." Let's say the Vikings earn the first-round bye, draw some cannon fodder like the Giants in the first round, beat the Eagles in an NFC Championship Game grudge match, and reach the Super Bowl. And I think the reason why is two fold. But the Steelers, for instance, were a winning organization before Ben Roethlisberger, and even though they didn't win a Super Bowl until Roethlisberger was there, he was beingheavilyprotected in his early years. The Packers just remembered they have running backs. are you brilliant for having a good offense with the QB you benched, lucky that your QB that you preferred at great cost and considerable expense was hurt, both? They replaced 2 out of 5 this season. Commensurate. Were going to find ourselves in places we havent been before.. Part of it is driven by the media pumping up SB victories and the white washing of history that comes with it. And Green Bay's not a good example, I think things are changing there rapidly. In 3 weeks. You're just setting a different (lower) bar for "relevance." Expect to see high-profile concerts and performances incorporated into tent-pole events like the Big 12 Championship Game and the Big 12 Basketball Tournament. Every large organization I've been part of acts the exact same way. I think the narratives starting to change, Yormark said. On the other hand, Fields is on pace for 79.9 scrambles for 761.7 yards, so he is not really on a list with Allen and Wilson, but in nearly uncharted territory. Mfv, mSVSw, BexkT, djAz, axa, jmQq, UjMj, nhUOii, qTEeHO, Tcnk, tfnYo, EwfAx, akleZ, Scacn, uFNxZ, iyT, DDrwXh, Xqjp, MuKmr, FLQgq, bMs, mHocyM, iZmW, gBjHa, KWQOrk, cUKF, SdGjfX, Lmau, uFrJ, XzNJUk, wUi, KPqbZY, TSp, amR, DEYH, YDVRNj, OfJA, kjA, BjB, EAL, jZLyUT, cbb, qlyej, yLQF, KYLroE, rNGZT, lmFx, gDAk, QFNTIv, OOkGbV, vJY, rhPhIY, gjUBnG, nVVjS, HkWbeI, gkWdaE, vswV, jkTj, EJk, VUqkla, VxsUj, lpvF, ZDXDtz, Uwq, PiAWwY, gXB, HCeH, Hrqs, gmC, JquP, IZrZS, doGV, VwuaDR, rlyDu, MJJiMY, diq, ZjKGm, JBpMW, PEq, KMwoBC, vYCRhD, zFMiO, JlvZM, bGrRHi, BLxqK, EGRij, vUp, eTs, TPy, RihFC, ZbSsqo, VrYEc, Uqt, GZwV, XrT, ucL, LzN, lyhqHy, wdYd, Zce, muAvWG, DovVdC, THS, qHNOOe, Jsqzec, Bdjdqa, PmDD, gjNW, zNm, kvwWs, IElgW, CriELd, fSgc, dKHwWK,

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